NukeGryd
Reference

Glossary

The energy-market terms behind Baseload, in plain English. If a label on any page isn't obvious, it's probably defined here.

Prices & units

$/MWh
Dollars per megawatt-hour, the price of one MWh of electricity. Every power price here is in $/MWh.
On-peak
The high-demand weekday hours (about 7am to 11pm). Our hub prices are on-peak, the window traders watch most.
Hub
A benchmark pricing location for a region (PJM West, Mass Hub). Like a regional index for power price.
Henry Hub
The U.S. benchmark natural-gas price, in dollars per MMBtu. Gas is the input fuel; power is the output.
$/MMBtu
Dollars per million British thermal units, the energy unit gas is priced in.
Basis
The price difference between two locations (e.g. a regional hub vs the benchmark). Requires a market-data vendor; not in EIA.

How outages move price

Marginal fuel
The last, most expensive plant needed to meet demand. It sets the price. Usually natural gas, which is why losing nuclear pushes price up through gas.
Heat rate
How much gas it takes to make power. Power price is roughly heat rate times gas price, so the dollar impact of a supply loss scales with gas.
Implied heat rate
On-peak power price divided by gas price. Shows whether power is rich or cheap relative to fuel, independent of gas swings.
Spark spread
Power price minus the gas cost to produce it, a rough generator margin.
Tight / Long
Tight means demand is close to available supply, so prices are jumpy and sensitive to any loss. Long means ample slack, so losses get absorbed.
HDD / CDD
Heating and cooling degree days, a measure of how cold or hot it is. They drive gas (heating) and power (cooling) demand, and therefore price.

Nuclear supply

Baseload
Always-on generation (nuclear, coal) versus peakers that ramp up and down. This product tracks nuclear baseload availability.
MW offline
Capacity not currently producing, the core supply signal. Nameplate capacity minus what is generating.
Capacity factor / Availability
Generation divided by full capacity, as a percent. 100% means the fleet is running flat out.
Refuel / outage
A planned shutdown (every 18-24 months) to replace fuel and do maintenance. The scheduled supply dips.
Scram / forced outage
An unplanned reactor trip. The surprise supply loss our same-day NRC wire catches first.
Overrun
When an outage runs longer than scheduled, keeping supply offline past its expected return.

Our methods

Scheduled vs projected
Scheduled = a utility-published date. Projected = our model estimate where no date is published yet. We always lead with scheduled.
P10 / P50 / P90
The confidence band on the forward curve. P50 is the central case; 80% of outcomes fall between P10 (low) and P90 (high).
Price residual
On-peak price minus its own recent (30-day) norm. Strips the gas/season level so we can isolate the effect of a supply loss.
ISO / RTO
The regional operators that run organized power markets (PJM, MISO, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO, SPP).
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