NukeGryd
Nuclear supply intelligence · U.S. power markets

Know how much nuclear is off the grid, what's coming, and what it's worth.

NukeGryd turns the North American reactor fleet into a tradable signal: megawatts offline by ISO across the U.S. and Ontario, a probabilistic forward curve, and what a supply loss means for on-peak price. Built on data nobody else assembles.

94 U.S. reactors and 16 Ontario units, covering PJM, MISO, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO, SPP and IESO.

6,767
MW offline now
7.0%
of U.S. fleet
PJM
most offline today
Updated every morning from the NRC Daily Power Reactor Status Report.
This morning's read

Nuclear availability 93.0, down on the week

The U.S. nuclear fleet sits at a Nuclear Availability Index of 93.0, down 2.4 on the week, with 6,767 MW offline, 7.0% of capacity.

Read the full Nuclear Supply Outlook →
Nuclear Availability Index
93.0
Full index, 1-year history & how to cite →

Three numbers nobody else publishes

every one of them scored against what happened
When it comes off line
Projected outage start
and duration, per unit
Refueling dates are not public and cannot be scraped. Where an operator has filed one we carry it; where nobody has, we project it. Scored 99.7/100.
How late it will run
Outage overrun
days past the published date
The operator files a return date. This is what actually happens. A +8 day overrun on a 1,200 MW unit is 9,600 MW-days the market has not priced. Scored 83/100.
If it trips
Forced-outage duration
days back to full power
Nobody schedules a scram, so the only question afterwards is when the megawatts return. Scored 83/100 across 956 trips, mean error 4.3 days.
Every incumbent will sell you a list of outage dates. These three say what the dates are actually going to do, and we publish how often we are right. See the track record.

We publish our own score

See the full record

Anyone can publish a forecast. We publish how well ours did, scored against what actually happened, rescored every morning, for every operating reactor. If the number moves against us, it moves in public.

Start date score
99.7 / 100
100 = called within two days, fleet-weighted
Overrun score
83 / 100
100 = the projected extension landed exactly
Beats the operator's own date
59.6%
of the time, on the return-to-service date
Reactors scored
94
every operating unit, rescored daily

National supply curve

Total MW offline by day, back through every season and forward through the next. One continuous availability signal, free.

A page for every reactor

All 94 U.S. units, each with its own page: today's power level, capacity and operator, its full outage record separated into refuels and forced outages, the refueling designators the industry itself uses, its breaker-to-breaker streak and its operating license. Free to read, and the record behind it is what the score is built on.

How well each unit runs

One 0-100 score per reactor, computed from 27 years of daily records: capacity factor, forced-outage days, streak length, fuel utilization, refuel and startup duration, scram rate. Ranked against comparable units, not against the whole fleet. It is why a published date from one operator means something different from the same date filed by another.

A page for every market

PJM, MISO, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO, SPP and the vertically integrated utilities, each with its generators listed: who owns them, what they are doing today, and how they behave. Pick a market once and the whole site follows you into it.

Season against season

Nuclear runs on a two-season clock, so the only honest comparison is the same season in a different year. Compare one market across years, or several markets against each other, nationally or per market.

The next twenty years

Operating license expiry and renewal for every unit, capacity added through uprates, what is being built and what has announced a retirement date. The structural picture underneath the outage schedule.

Probabilistic forward curve

Projected refuels and their MW impact months ahead, as a P10 / P50 / P90 confidence band you can size against, not a single guess. Sourced outage dates where we hold them, model projection beyond.

ISO / RTO breakdown

PJM, MISO, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO, SPP and the non-ISO Southeast and West, every unit attributed to its balancing authority, plus Ontario (IESO) as a parallel fleet, reported hour by hour and never blended into the U.S. totals.

Ontario, to the hour

Bruce, Darlington and Pickering, per unit, straight off the IESO market feed and refreshed hourly. Outage onset carries the hour a unit actually came down, not just the day. Reported as its own fleet, never blended into the U.S. numbers.

Market impact

Nuclear supply set against ISO demand, gas and on-peak price, with a supply-shock backtester and a forward estimate of what an outage is worth in dollars per MWh when the grid is tight.

Outage-risk radar

The units most likely to surprise the market, ranked: model-projected overruns and live forced-outage exposure, rolled up by ISO.

Same-day NRC wire

Scrams, trips and power cuts read from the NRC event feed the same day they are filed, matched to the fleet and to the units you follow.

Scenario builder

Slip a start, extend a refuel or drop in a hypothetical trip, and the national supply curve redraws as you move it, with the estimated price impact of your what-if.

Weather & fuel context

Heating and cooling degree days and the gas regime explain why a loss bites or gets absorbed, with seasonal normals and an 18-month forecast.

Alerts & watchlists

A morning brief of the supply shifts that matter, by email or Slack webhook, filtered to the ISOs and units on your watchlist.

API & signal library

Every series, MW offline, ISO splits, prices, degree days and the raw model features, in a keyed JSON API and documented CSVs for your own models.

See it work before you pay for it.

The full national curve and today's snapshot are free, forever. The probabilistic forward curve, the ISO breakdowns, the price-impact layer and the scenario builder are where you get ahead of the move, and they unlock the instant you subscribe.