Structural Supply

Fleet Lifecycle

Licenses, uprates, new build and retirements. The outage board is what happens this month; this is the shape of the fleet over the next twenty years.

Filtered to BPA FPL MISO Southern Show all markets

Average license left

19.9 yr

26 units with an expiry on file

Expiring within 10 years

soonest Prairie Island 1, 2033

Capacity added

+896 MW

29 uprate steps across 20 units

Licenses renewed

24 / 26

already extended at least once

Operating Licenses

soonest expiry first

Unit	Market	Owner	MW	In service	Age	License expires	Years left	Renewed	Reactor supplier
Prairie Island 1	MISO	Xcel Energy	521	1973	53	Aug 2033	7	2011	WEST 2LP
Arkansas Nuclear 1	MISO	Entergy	826	1974	52	May 2034	8	2001	B&W LLP
Hatch 1	Southern	Southern Nuclear	876	1975	51	Aug 2034	8	2002	GE 4
Prairie Island 2	MISO	Xcel Energy	519	1974	52	Oct 2034	8	2011	WEST 2LP
Farley 1	Southern	Southern Nuclear	895	1977	49	Jun 2037	11	2005	WEST 3LP
Hatch 2	Southern	Southern Nuclear	883	1979	47	Jun 2038	12	2002	GE 4
Arkansas Nuclear 2	MISO	Entergy	982	1980	47	Jul 2038	12	2005	COMB CE
Farley 2	Southern	Southern Nuclear	896	1981	45	Mar 2041	15	2005	WEST 3LP
Columbia Generating Station	BPA	Energy Northwest	1,151	1984	42	Dec 2043	17	2012	GE 5
Callaway	MISO	Ameren Missouri	1,190	1984	42	Oct 2044	18	2015	WEST 4LP
Grand Gulf 1	MISO	Entergy	1,397	1985	41	Nov 2044	18	2016	GE 6
Waterford 3	MISO	Entergy	1,087	1985	41	Dec 2044	18	2018	COMB CE
Fermi 2	MISO	DTE Energy	1,141	1988	39	Mar 2045	19	2016	GE 4
River Bend 1	MISO	Entergy	968	1986	40	Aug 2045	19	2018	GE 6
Vogtle 1	Southern	Southern Nuclear	1,150	1987	39	Jan 2047	20	2009	WEST 4LP
Clinton	MISO	Constellation Energy	1,079	1987	39	Apr 2047	21	2025	GE 6
Vogtle 2	Southern	Southern Nuclear	1,152	1989	37	Feb 2049	22	2009	WEST 4LP
Monticello	MISO	Xcel Energy	617	1971	55	Sep 2050	24	2024	GE 3
Point Beach 1	MISO	NextEra Energy	589	1970	56	Oct 2050	24	2025	WEST 2LP
Turkey Point 3	FPL	NextEra Energy	837	1972	54	Jul 2052	26	2019	WEST 3LP
Point Beach 2	MISO	NextEra Energy	597	1972	54	Mar 2053	27	2025	WEST 2LP
Turkey Point 4	FPL	NextEra Energy	844	1973	53	Apr 2053	27	2019	WEST 3LP
Saint Lucie 1	FPL	NextEra Energy	981	1976	50	Mar 2056	30	2026	COMB CE
Vogtle 3	Southern	Southern Nuclear	1,114	2023	3	Mar 2062	36	Original	WEST 2LP
Vogtle 4	Southern	Southern Nuclear	1,114	2024	2	Mar 2062	36	Original	WEST 2LP
Saint Lucie 2	FPL	NextEra Energy	987	1983	43	Apr 2063	37	2026	COMB CE

Expiry is the current operating license end date on file with the NRC. A unit marked Original has not yet taken a renewal, which is where a life-extension case gets made; one showing a year has already been extended once and may extend again. License dates are public NRC filings, so this board is verifiable line by line against the docket.

Capacity Added Since First Record

largest gain first

Unit	Market	Earliest MW	Today MW	Added	Gain	Uprate steps
Turkey Point 4	FPL	693	844	+151	+21.8%	5
Saint Lucie 2	FPL	839	987	+148	+17.6%	1
Turkey Point 3	FPL	693	837	+144	+20.8%	2
Saint Lucie 1	FPL	839	981	+142	+16.9%	2
Grand Gulf 1	MISO	1,259	1,397	+138	+10.9%	1
Point Beach 2	MISO	516	597	+81	+15.7%	1
Point Beach 1	MISO	510	589	+79	+15.5%	2
Monticello	MISO	572	617	+45	+7.9%	3
Farley 1	Southern	851	895	+44	+5.2%	2
Farley 2	Southern	860	896	+36	+4.2%	2
Clinton	MISO	1,043	1,079	+36	+3.4%	2
Columbia Generating Station	BPA	1,131	1,151	+20	+1.8%	3
Fermi 2	MISO	1,122	1,141	+19	+1.7%	2
Callaway	MISO	1,190	1,190	0	0.0%	1

Read this carefully. Net summer capability is restated by EIA most years by a few megawatts, which is measurement rather than metal. Only a step of 1.5% or more is counted in the Uprate steps column; the Added column is the cumulative change since the unit's earliest record and will include some restatement drift. A unit with a large gain and one or two counted steps has genuinely been uprated; a small gain with no steps has not.

Recently Entered Service

EIA-860M generator inventory

Unit	Market	MW	In service
Vogtle 4	Southern	1,114	2024-04
Vogtle 3	Southern	1,114	2023-07

Leaving the Fleet

Announced retirements

Unit	Market	MW	Planned retirement
Monticello Nuclear Facility 1	MISO	617	2030-12
Prairie Island 1	MISO	521	2033-12
Prairie Island 2	MISO	519	2034-12

Already shut down

Unit	Shut down	Docket	Notes
Palisades	May 2022	05000255	Pending Restart
Indian Point 3	Apr 2021	05000286
Duane Arnold	Aug 2020	05000331
Indian Point 2	Apr 2020	05000247
Three Mile Island 1	Sep 2019	050000289	Pending Restart
Pilgrim 1	May 2019	05000293
Oyster Creek	Sep 2018	05000219
Fort Calhoun	Oct 2016	05000285
Vermont Yankee	Dec 2014	05000271
San Onofre 2	Jun 2013	05000361
San Onofre 3	Jun 2013	05000362
Kewaunee	May 2013	05000305
Crystal River 3	Feb 2013	05000302
Millstone 1	Jul 1998	05000245
Big Rock Point	Aug 1997	05000155
Zion 1	Feb 1997	05000295
Maine Yankee	Dec 1996	05000309
Haddam Neck	Dec 1996	05000213
Zion 2	Sep 1996	05000304
San Onofre 1	Nov 1992	05000206	Plant has completed all decommissioning activities, but has not requested license.

Ordered and Never Built

the capacity the U.S. fleet did not get

Unit	Utility	Location	Type	MW	Canceled
Bell Bend	Bell Bend, LLC	Luzerne County, PA	U.S. EPR	1,600	2016
Grand Gulf 3	Entergy Operations, Inc.	Near Port Gibson in Claiborne County, MS	ESBWR	1,594	2015
Callaway 2	Union Electric Company (Ameren UE)	Fulton, Callaway County, MO	U.S. EPR	1,600	2015
V.C. Summer, Units 2 and 3	South Carolina Electric & Gas Co.	Jenkinsville, SC	AP1000	1,100	2019
Nine Mile Point 3	UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC	25 miles SE of Cincinnati, OH	ESBWR	1,594	2014
River Bend 3	Entergy Operations, Inc.	St. Francisville, LA	ESBWR	1,594	2016
Victoria County Station 1 and 2	Exelon Nuclear Texas Holdings, LLC	Near Victoria City in Victoria County, TX	ESBWR	4,500	2010
Calvert Cliffs 3	UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC	Near Lusby in Calvert County, MD	U.S. EPR	1,594	2015
South Texas Project 3 and 4	Nuclear Innovation North America, LLC	Bay City, TX	ABWR	3,926	2018
Bellefonte 3 & 4	Tennessee Valley Authority	Scottsboro, Jackson County, AL	AP1000	3,763	2016
Levy 1 and 2	Duke Energy Florida	2 miles NE of Inglis, FL	AP1000	1,100	2018
Washington Nuclear 3 (WPPSS)	Energy Northwest	12 miles NE of Richland, WA	PWR	1,242	1995
Washington Nuclear 1 (WPPSS)	Energy Northwest	12 miles NE of Richland, WA	PWR	1,266	1995
Perry 2	Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co.	35 miles NE of Cleveland, OH	BWR	1,205	1994
Grand Gulf 2	Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.	20 miles SW of Vicksburg, MS	BWR	1,250	1990
Seabrook 2	Public Service Co. of New Hampshire	13 miles S of Portsmouth, NH	PWR	1,198	1988
Midland 2	Consumers Power Company	S of City of Midland, MI	PWR	818	1986
Midland 1	Consumers Power Company	S of City of Midland, MI	PWR	492	1986
Marble Hill 1 & 2	Public Service of Indiana	6 miles NE of New Washington, IN	PWR	1,130	1985
Zimmer 1	Cincinnati Gas & Electric Company	25 miles SE of Cincinnati, OH	BWR	810	1984
Yellow Creek 1 & 2	Tennessee Valley Authority	15 miles E of Corinth, MS	BWR	1,285	1984
River Bend 2	Gulf States Utilities Company	24 miles NNW of Baton Rouge, LA	BWR	934	1984
Cherokee 1	Duke Power Company	6 miles SSW of Blacksburg, SC	PWR	1,280	1983
Skagit/Hanford 1 & 2	Puget Sound Power & Light Company	23 miles SE of Bellingham, WA	PWR	1,277	1983
Shearon Harris 2	Carolina Power & Light Company	20 miles SW of Raleigh, NC	PWR	900	1983

Structure is the long view. What about the next eighteen months? Individual · $165/mo

Licenses and uprates move over decades. The forward curve is the same fleet at trading horizon: which unit comes off line when, how long for, and how much of that is already priced.

Probabilistic MW-offline curve to 18 months
Every published and projected outage date
Projected overrun days per unit
Scored daily against what actually happens

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