Structural Supply
Fleet Lifecycle
Licenses, uprates, new build and retirements. The outage board is what happens this month;
this is the shape of the fleet over the next twenty years.
Average license left
23.5 yr
8 units with an expiry on file
Expiring within 10 years
1
soonest Millstone 2, 2035
Capacity added
+87 MW
5 uprate steps across 4 units
Licenses renewed
8 / 8
already extended at least once
Operating Licenses
soonest expiry first| Unit | Market | Owner | MW | In service | Age | License expires | Years left | Renewed | Reactor supplier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millstone 2 | ISO-NE | Dominion Energy | 863 | 1975 | 51 | Jul 2035 | 9 | 2005 | COMB CE |
| Palo Verde 1 | SRP | Arizona Public Service | 1,311 | 1986 | 41 | Jun 2045 | 19 | 2011 | COMB CE80 |
| Millstone 3 | ISO-NE | Dominion Energy | 1,243 | 1986 | 40 | Nov 2045 | 19 | 2005 | WEST 4LP |
| Palo Verde 2 | SRP | Arizona Public Service | 1,314 | 1986 | 40 | Apr 2046 | 20 | 2011 | COMB CE80 |
| Palo Verde 3 | SRP | Arizona Public Service | 1,312 | 1988 | 39 | Nov 2047 | 21 | 2011 | COMB CE80 |
| Seabrook 1 | ISO-NE | NextEra Energy | 1,246 | 1990 | 36 | Mar 2050 | 24 | 2019 | WEST 4LP |
| Diablo Canyon 1 | CAISO | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,122 | 1985 | 41 | Nov 2064 | 38 | 2026 | WEST 4LP |
| Diablo Canyon 2 | CAISO | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,118 | 1986 | 41 | Aug 2065 | 39 | 2026 | WEST 4LP |
Expiry is the current operating license end date on file with the NRC. A unit marked
Original has not yet taken a renewal, which is where a life-extension case gets made; one showing
a year has already been extended once and may extend again. License dates are public NRC filings, so this board
is verifiable line by line against the docket.
Capacity Added Since First Record
largest gain first| Unit | Market | Earliest MW | Today MW | Added | Gain | Uprate steps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millstone 3 | ISO-NE | 1,138 | 1,243 | +106 | +9.3% | 3 |
| Seabrook 1 | ISO-NE | 1,245 | 1,246 | +0 | 0.0% | — |
| Millstone 2 | ISO-NE | 877 | 863 | -14 | -1.6% | 2 |
Read this carefully. Net summer capability is restated by EIA most years by a few megawatts,
which is measurement rather than metal. Only a step of 1.5% or more is counted in the
Uprate steps column; the Added column is the cumulative change since the unit's
earliest record and will include some restatement drift. A unit with a large gain and one or two counted steps
has genuinely been uprated; a small gain with no steps has not.
Leaving the Fleet
Already shut down
| Unit | Shut down | Docket | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palisades | May 2022 | 05000255 | Pending Restart |
| Indian Point 3 | Apr 2021 | 05000286 | |
| Duane Arnold | Aug 2020 | 05000331 | |
| Indian Point 2 | Apr 2020 | 05000247 | |
| Three Mile Island 1 | Sep 2019 | 050000289 | Pending Restart |
| Pilgrim 1 | May 2019 | 05000293 | |
| Oyster Creek | Sep 2018 | 05000219 | |
| Fort Calhoun | Oct 2016 | 05000285 | |
| Vermont Yankee | Dec 2014 | 05000271 | |
| San Onofre 2 | Jun 2013 | 05000361 | |
| San Onofre 3 | Jun 2013 | 05000362 | |
| Kewaunee | May 2013 | 05000305 | |
| Crystal River 3 | Feb 2013 | 05000302 | |
| Millstone 1 | Jul 1998 | 05000245 | |
| Big Rock Point | Aug 1997 | 05000155 | |
| Zion 1 | Feb 1997 | 05000295 | |
| Maine Yankee | Dec 1996 | 05000309 | |
| Haddam Neck | Dec 1996 | 05000213 | |
| Zion 2 | Sep 1996 | 05000304 | |
| San Onofre 1 | Nov 1992 | 05000206 | Plant has completed all decommissioning activities, but has not requested license. |
Ordered and Never Built
the capacity the U.S. fleet did not get| Unit | Utility | Location | Type | MW | Canceled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell Bend | Bell Bend, LLC | Luzerne County, PA | U.S. EPR | 1,600 | 2016 |
| Grand Gulf 3 | Entergy Operations, Inc. | Near Port Gibson in Claiborne County, MS | ESBWR | 1,594 | 2015 |
| Callaway 2 | Union Electric Company (Ameren UE) | Fulton, Callaway County, MO | U.S. EPR | 1,600 | 2015 |
| V.C. Summer, Units 2 and 3 | South Carolina Electric & Gas Co. | Jenkinsville, SC | AP1000 | 1,100 | 2019 |
| Nine Mile Point 3 | UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC | 25 miles SE of Cincinnati, OH | ESBWR | 1,594 | 2014 |
| River Bend 3 | Entergy Operations, Inc. | St. Francisville, LA | ESBWR | 1,594 | 2016 |
| Victoria County Station 1 and 2 | Exelon Nuclear Texas Holdings, LLC | Near Victoria City in Victoria County, TX | ESBWR | 4,500 | 2010 |
| Calvert Cliffs 3 | UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC | Near Lusby in Calvert County, MD | U.S. EPR | 1,594 | 2015 |
| South Texas Project 3 and 4 | Nuclear Innovation North America, LLC | Bay City, TX | ABWR | 3,926 | 2018 |
| Bellefonte 3 & 4 | Tennessee Valley Authority | Scottsboro, Jackson County, AL | AP1000 | 3,763 | 2016 |
| Levy 1 and 2 | Duke Energy Florida | 2 miles NE of Inglis, FL | AP1000 | 1,100 | 2018 |
| Washington Nuclear 3 (WPPSS) | Energy Northwest | 12 miles NE of Richland, WA | PWR | 1,242 | 1995 |
| Washington Nuclear 1 (WPPSS) | Energy Northwest | 12 miles NE of Richland, WA | PWR | 1,266 | 1995 |
| Perry 2 | Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co. | 35 miles NE of Cleveland, OH | BWR | 1,205 | 1994 |
| Grand Gulf 2 | Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. | 20 miles SW of Vicksburg, MS | BWR | 1,250 | 1990 |
| Seabrook 2 | Public Service Co. of New Hampshire | 13 miles S of Portsmouth, NH | PWR | 1,198 | 1988 |
| Midland 2 | Consumers Power Company | S of City of Midland, MI | PWR | 818 | 1986 |
| Midland 1 | Consumers Power Company | S of City of Midland, MI | PWR | 492 | 1986 |
| Marble Hill 1 & 2 | Public Service of Indiana | 6 miles NE of New Washington, IN | PWR | 1,130 | 1985 |
| Zimmer 1 | Cincinnati Gas & Electric Company | 25 miles SE of Cincinnati, OH | BWR | 810 | 1984 |
| Yellow Creek 1 & 2 | Tennessee Valley Authority | 15 miles E of Corinth, MS | BWR | 1,285 | 1984 |
| River Bend 2 | Gulf States Utilities Company | 24 miles NNW of Baton Rouge, LA | BWR | 934 | 1984 |
| Cherokee 1 | Duke Power Company | 6 miles SSW of Blacksburg, SC | PWR | 1,280 | 1983 |
| Skagit/Hanford 1 & 2 | Puget Sound Power & Light Company | 23 miles SE of Bellingham, WA | PWR | 1,277 | 1983 |
| Shearon Harris 2 | Carolina Power & Light Company | 20 miles SW of Raleigh, NC | PWR | 900 | 1983 |
Structure is the long view. What about the next eighteen months?
Individual · $165/mo
Licenses and uprates move over decades. The forward curve is the same fleet at trading horizon: which unit comes off line when, how long for, and how much of that is already priced.
- Probabilistic MW-offline curve to 18 months
- Every published and projected outage date
- Projected overrun days per unit
- Scored daily against what actually happens