Structural Supply
Fleet Lifecycle
Licenses, uprates, new build and retirements. The outage board is what happens this month;
this is the shape of the fleet over the next twenty years.
Average license left
20.2 yr
48 units with an expiry on file
Expiring within 10 years
10
soonest Quad Cities 2, 2032
Capacity added
+2,078 MW
47 uprate steps across 37 units
Licenses renewed
46 / 48
already extended at least once
Operating Licenses
soonest expiry first| Unit | Market | Owner | MW | In service | Age | License expires | Years left | Renewed | Reactor supplier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quad Cities 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 911 | 1973 | 54 | Dec 2032 | 6 | 2004 | GE 3 |
| Quad Cities 1 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 908 | 1973 | 54 | Dec 2032 | 6 | 2004 | GE 3 |
| Calvert Cliffs 1 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 884 | 1975 | 51 | Jul 2034 | 8 | 2000 | COMB CE |
| D.C. Cook 1 | PJM | Indiana Michigan Power | 1,009 | 1975 | 51 | Oct 2034 | 8 | 2005 | WEST 4LP |
| Brunswick 2 | Duke Progress | Duke Energy | 932 | 1975 | 51 | Dec 2034 | 8 | 2006 | GE 4 |
| Watts Bar 1 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,123 | 1996 | 30 | Nov 2035 | 9 | Original | WEST 4LP |
| Beaver Valley 1 | PJM | Vistra Corp. | 907 | 1976 | 50 | Jan 2036 | 9 | 2009 | WEST 3LP |
| Salem 1 | PJM | PSEG Nuclear | 1,146 | 1977 | 49 | Aug 2036 | 10 | 2011 | WEST 4LP |
| Calvert Cliffs 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 861 | 1977 | 50 | Aug 2036 | 10 | 2000 | COMB CE |
| Brunswick 1 | Duke Progress | Duke Energy | 938 | 1977 | 50 | Sep 2036 | 10 | 2006 | GE 4 |
| Davis-Besse | PJM | Vistra Corp. | 894 | 1978 | 48 | Apr 2037 | 11 | 2015 | B&W LLP |
| D.C. Cook 2 | PJM | Indiana Michigan Power | 1,168 | 1978 | 48 | Dec 2037 | 11 | 2005 | WEST 4LP |
| Salem 2 | PJM | PSEG Nuclear | 1,142 | 1981 | 45 | Apr 2040 | 14 | 2011 | WEST 4LP |
| Sequoyah 1 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,148 | 1981 | 45 | Sep 2040 | 14 | 2015 | WEST 4LP |
| Sequoyah 2 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,126 | 1982 | 44 | Sep 2041 | 15 | 2015 | WEST 4LP |
| LaSalle 1 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,131 | 1984 | 43 | Apr 2042 | 16 | 2016 | GE 5 |
| Susquehanna 1 | PJM | Talen Energy | 1,247 | 1983 | 43 | Jul 2042 | 16 | 2009 | GE 4 |
| LaSalle 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,134 | 1984 | 42 | Dec 2043 | 17 | 2016 | GE 5 |
| Susquehanna 2 | PJM | Talen Energy | 1,247 | 1985 | 42 | Mar 2044 | 18 | 2009 | GE 4 |
| Limerick 1 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,120 | 1986 | 41 | Oct 2044 | 18 | 2014 | GE 4 |
| Byron 1 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,164 | 1985 | 41 | Oct 2044 | 18 | 2015 | WEST 4LP |
| Hope Creek 1 | PJM | PSEG Nuclear | 1,172 | 1986 | 40 | Apr 2046 | 20 | 2011 | GE 4 |
| Braidwood 1 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,183 | 1988 | 38 | Oct 2046 | 20 | 2016 | WEST 4LP |
| Harris 1 | Duke Progress | Duke Energy | 964 | 1987 | 39 | Oct 2046 | 20 | 2008 | WEST 3LP |
| Byron 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,136 | 1987 | 39 | Nov 2046 | 20 | 2015 | WEST 4LP |
| Perry 1 | PJM | Vistra Corp. | 1,240 | 1987 | 39 | Nov 2046 | 20 | 2025 | GE 6 |
| Beaver Valley 2 | PJM | Vistra Corp. | 901 | 1987 | 39 | May 2047 | 21 | 2009 | WEST 3LP |
| Braidwood 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,152 | 1988 | 38 | Dec 2047 | 21 | 2016 | WEST 4LP |
| Limerick 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,122 | 1990 | 37 | Jun 2049 | 23 | 2014 | GE 4 |
| Dresden 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 902 | 1970 | 56 | Dec 2049 | 23 | 2025 | GE 3 |
| Robinson 2 | Duke Progress | Duke Energy | 759 | 1971 | 56 | Jul 2050 | 24 | 2026 | WEST 3LP |
| Dresden 3 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 895 | 1971 | 55 | Jan 2051 | 24 | 2025 | GE 3 |
| Surry 1 | PJM | Dominion Energy | 838 | 1972 | 54 | May 2052 | 26 | 2021 | WEST 3LP |
| Turkey Point 3 | FPL | NextEra Energy | 837 | 1972 | 54 | Jul 2052 | 26 | 2019 | WEST 3LP |
| Surry 2 | PJM | Dominion Energy | 838 | 1973 | 53 | Jan 2053 | 26 | 2021 | WEST 3LP |
| Turkey Point 4 | FPL | NextEra Energy | 844 | 1973 | 53 | Apr 2053 | 27 | 2019 | WEST 3LP |
| Peach Bottom 2 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,265 | 1974 | 52 | Aug 2053 | 27 | 2020 | GE 4 |
| Browns Ferry 1 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,227 | 1974 | 52 | Dec 2053 | 27 | 2025 | GE 4 |
| Browns Ferry 2 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,208 | 1975 | 52 | Jun 2054 | 28 | 2025 | GE 4 |
| Peach Bottom 3 | PJM | Constellation Energy | 1,285 | 1974 | 52 | Jul 2054 | 28 | 2020 | GE 4 |
| Watts Bar 2 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,122 | 2016 | 10 | Oct 2055 | 29 | Original | WEST 4LP |
| Saint Lucie 1 | FPL | NextEra Energy | 981 | 1976 | 50 | Mar 2056 | 30 | 2026 | COMB CE |
| Browns Ferry 3 | TVA | Tennessee Valley Authority | 1,227 | 1977 | 50 | Jul 2056 | 30 | 2025 | General Electric |
| North Anna 1 | PJM | Dominion Energy | 948 | 1978 | 48 | Apr 2058 | 32 | 2024 | WEST 3LP |
| North Anna 2 | PJM | Dominion Energy | 943 | 1980 | 46 | Aug 2060 | 34 | 2024 | WEST 3LP |
| Saint Lucie 2 | FPL | NextEra Energy | 987 | 1983 | 43 | Apr 2063 | 37 | 2026 | COMB CE |
| Diablo Canyon 1 | CAISO | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,122 | 1985 | 41 | Nov 2064 | 38 | 2026 | WEST 4LP |
| Diablo Canyon 2 | CAISO | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,118 | 1986 | 41 | Aug 2065 | 39 | 2026 | WEST 4LP |
Expiry is the current operating license end date on file with the NRC. A unit marked
Original has not yet taken a renewal, which is where a life-extension case gets made; one showing
a year has already been extended once and may extend again. License dates are public NRC filings, so this board
is verifiable line by line against the docket.
Capacity Added Since First Record
largest gain first| Unit | Market | Earliest MW | Today MW | Added | Gain | Uprate steps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peach Bottom 3 | PJM | 1,112 | 1,285 | +173 | +15.5% | 2 |
| Browns Ferry 1 | TVA | 1,065 | 1,227 | +162 | +15.2% | 2 |
| Peach Bottom 2 | PJM | 1,112 | 1,265 | +153 | +13.7% | 2 |
| Turkey Point 4 | FPL | 693 | 844 | +151 | +21.8% | 5 |
| Saint Lucie 2 | FPL | 839 | 987 | +148 | +17.6% | 1 |
| Turkey Point 3 | FPL | 693 | 837 | +144 | +20.8% | 2 |
| Saint Lucie 1 | FPL | 839 | 981 | +142 | +16.9% | 2 |
| Browns Ferry 3 | TVA | 1,105 | 1,227 | +122 | +11.0% | 1 |
| D.C. Cook 2 | PJM | 1,060 | 1,168 | +108 | +10.2% | 1 |
| Susquehanna 2 | PJM | 1,140 | 1,247 | +107 | +9.4% | 2 |
| Browns Ferry 2 | TVA | 1,104 | 1,208 | +104 | +9.4% | 1 |
| Harris 1 | Duke Progress | 900 | 964 | +64 | +7.1% | 2 |
| Susquehanna 1 | PJM | 1,185 | 1,247 | +62 | +5.2% | 1 |
| Beaver Valley 2 | PJM | 846 | 901 | +55 | +6.5% | 2 |
| Robinson 2 | Duke Progress | 710 | 759 | +49 | +6.9% | 3 |
| North Anna 1 | PJM | 903 | 948 | +45 | +5.0% | 2 |
| Quad Cities 2 | PJM | 867 | 911 | +44 | +5.1% | 2 |
| Quad Cities 1 | PJM | 867 | 908 | +41 | +4.7% | 2 |
| North Anna 2 | PJM | 903 | 943 | +40 | +4.4% | 1 |
| Surry 1 | PJM | 799 | 838 | +39 | +4.9% | 1 |
| Surry 2 | PJM | 799 | 838 | +39 | +4.9% | 1 |
| Dresden 2 | PJM | 867 | 902 | +35 | +4.0% | 2 |
| Dresden 3 | PJM | 867 | 895 | +28 | +3.2% | 1 |
| Beaver Valley 1 | PJM | 892 | 907 | +15 | +1.7% | 1 |
| Davis-Besse | PJM | 879 | 894 | +15 | +1.7% | 1 |
| LaSalle 2 | PJM | 1,120 | 1,134 | +14 | +1.2% | 1 |
| LaSalle 1 | PJM | 1,118 | 1,131 | +13 | +1.1% | 1 |
| Brunswick 2 | Duke Progress | 920 | 932 | +12 | +1.3% | — |
| Calvert Cliffs 1 | PJM | 873 | 884 | +11 | +1.3% | 1 |
| Hope Creek 1 | PJM | 1,161 | 1,172 | +11 | +0.9% | — |
| Braidwood 1 | PJM | 1,178 | 1,183 | +5 | +0.4% | — |
| Calvert Cliffs 2 | PJM | 862 | 861 | -1 | -0.1% | 1 |
Read this carefully. Net summer capability is restated by EIA most years by a few megawatts,
which is measurement rather than metal. Only a step of 1.5% or more is counted in the
Uprate steps column; the Added column is the cumulative change since the unit's
earliest record and will include some restatement drift. A unit with a large gain and one or two counted steps
has genuinely been uprated; a small gain with no steps has not.
Leaving the Fleet
Already shut down
| Unit | Shut down | Docket | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palisades | May 2022 | 05000255 | Pending Restart |
| Indian Point 3 | Apr 2021 | 05000286 | |
| Duane Arnold | Aug 2020 | 05000331 | |
| Indian Point 2 | Apr 2020 | 05000247 | |
| Three Mile Island 1 | Sep 2019 | 050000289 | Pending Restart |
| Pilgrim 1 | May 2019 | 05000293 | |
| Oyster Creek | Sep 2018 | 05000219 | |
| Fort Calhoun | Oct 2016 | 05000285 | |
| Vermont Yankee | Dec 2014 | 05000271 | |
| San Onofre 2 | Jun 2013 | 05000361 | |
| San Onofre 3 | Jun 2013 | 05000362 | |
| Kewaunee | May 2013 | 05000305 | |
| Crystal River 3 | Feb 2013 | 05000302 | |
| Millstone 1 | Jul 1998 | 05000245 | |
| Big Rock Point | Aug 1997 | 05000155 | |
| Zion 1 | Feb 1997 | 05000295 | |
| Maine Yankee | Dec 1996 | 05000309 | |
| Haddam Neck | Dec 1996 | 05000213 | |
| Zion 2 | Sep 1996 | 05000304 | |
| San Onofre 1 | Nov 1992 | 05000206 | Plant has completed all decommissioning activities, but has not requested license. |
Ordered and Never Built
the capacity the U.S. fleet did not get| Unit | Utility | Location | Type | MW | Canceled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell Bend | Bell Bend, LLC | Luzerne County, PA | U.S. EPR | 1,600 | 2016 |
| Grand Gulf 3 | Entergy Operations, Inc. | Near Port Gibson in Claiborne County, MS | ESBWR | 1,594 | 2015 |
| Callaway 2 | Union Electric Company (Ameren UE) | Fulton, Callaway County, MO | U.S. EPR | 1,600 | 2015 |
| V.C. Summer, Units 2 and 3 | South Carolina Electric & Gas Co. | Jenkinsville, SC | AP1000 | 1,100 | 2019 |
| Nine Mile Point 3 | UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC | 25 miles SE of Cincinnati, OH | ESBWR | 1,594 | 2014 |
| River Bend 3 | Entergy Operations, Inc. | St. Francisville, LA | ESBWR | 1,594 | 2016 |
| Victoria County Station 1 and 2 | Exelon Nuclear Texas Holdings, LLC | Near Victoria City in Victoria County, TX | ESBWR | 4,500 | 2010 |
| Calvert Cliffs 3 | UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC | Near Lusby in Calvert County, MD | U.S. EPR | 1,594 | 2015 |
| South Texas Project 3 and 4 | Nuclear Innovation North America, LLC | Bay City, TX | ABWR | 3,926 | 2018 |
| Bellefonte 3 & 4 | Tennessee Valley Authority | Scottsboro, Jackson County, AL | AP1000 | 3,763 | 2016 |
| Levy 1 and 2 | Duke Energy Florida | 2 miles NE of Inglis, FL | AP1000 | 1,100 | 2018 |
| Washington Nuclear 3 (WPPSS) | Energy Northwest | 12 miles NE of Richland, WA | PWR | 1,242 | 1995 |
| Washington Nuclear 1 (WPPSS) | Energy Northwest | 12 miles NE of Richland, WA | PWR | 1,266 | 1995 |
| Perry 2 | Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co. | 35 miles NE of Cleveland, OH | BWR | 1,205 | 1994 |
| Grand Gulf 2 | Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. | 20 miles SW of Vicksburg, MS | BWR | 1,250 | 1990 |
| Seabrook 2 | Public Service Co. of New Hampshire | 13 miles S of Portsmouth, NH | PWR | 1,198 | 1988 |
| Midland 2 | Consumers Power Company | S of City of Midland, MI | PWR | 818 | 1986 |
| Midland 1 | Consumers Power Company | S of City of Midland, MI | PWR | 492 | 1986 |
| Marble Hill 1 & 2 | Public Service of Indiana | 6 miles NE of New Washington, IN | PWR | 1,130 | 1985 |
| Zimmer 1 | Cincinnati Gas & Electric Company | 25 miles SE of Cincinnati, OH | BWR | 810 | 1984 |
| Yellow Creek 1 & 2 | Tennessee Valley Authority | 15 miles E of Corinth, MS | BWR | 1,285 | 1984 |
| River Bend 2 | Gulf States Utilities Company | 24 miles NNW of Baton Rouge, LA | BWR | 934 | 1984 |
| Cherokee 1 | Duke Power Company | 6 miles SSW of Blacksburg, SC | PWR | 1,280 | 1983 |
| Skagit/Hanford 1 & 2 | Puget Sound Power & Light Company | 23 miles SE of Bellingham, WA | PWR | 1,277 | 1983 |
| Shearon Harris 2 | Carolina Power & Light Company | 20 miles SW of Raleigh, NC | PWR | 900 | 1983 |
Structure is the long view. What about the next eighteen months?
Individual · $165/mo
Licenses and uprates move over decades. The forward curve is the same fleet at trading horizon: which unit comes off line when, how long for, and how much of that is already priced.
- Probabilistic MW-offline curve to 18 months
- Every published and projected outage date
- Projected overrun days per unit
- Scored daily against what actually happens