Surprise Risk · Overrun + Forced

Outage-Risk Radar

Where nuclear supply is most likely to move against the market: outages that run long, and units carrying forced-outage exposure. Projected and observed, not a guarantee.

Outage overrun is one of three numbers nobody else publishes. The operator files a return-to-service date. This is how many days past it the outage will actually run. No other vendor publishes a number for this at all. Everything on this page is built on it. See who is exposed

See which units could surprise the market

Rank every unit by the supply it could pull from the grid unexpectedly: model-projected outage overruns and live forced-outage exposure, rolled up by ISO. Updated every morning.

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Ontario (IESO) separate fleet

Ontario detail

MW Offline

3,632 MW

29.9% of the Ontario fleet

Units Offline

4 of 16

Bruce, Darlington, Pickering

Delivering

8,528 MW

of 12,160 MW installed

Resolution

1 hour

vs. once-daily for the U.S. fleet

Ontario is not in the risk model yet; live status for reference. Ontario is reported as a separate fleet and is never added into the U.S. national figures above. IESO grid-operator market data (MW delivered), not NRC percent-power.